The Tenth Man and The Black Swan
Today’s world creates the need for a tenth-man mentality. More on this in a moment.
One of the verses I heard my dad quote on several occasions was from 1 Chronicles 12. This passage named individuals and groups of men who were ready to serve in King David’s army. In verse 32, it mentions that the men from the tribe of Issachar “understood the times and knew what Israel should do.” My dad thought this was a trait believers needed to have today—to recognize what was going on in the world and what to do about it.
Similarly, I have always been drawn to the story of Joseph in Genesis 41 and how he listened to what God spoke to him about trying times ahead and acted accordingly. I don’t believe God wired me to accept things as they are, but to be willing to step back, receive hard information, and consider tough subjects and possibilities. And like Joseph, there is a time to not just talk about things but to act.
The 2013 movie World War Z is about a world-altering plague that makes people act like zombies. In the movie, a strategy called the Tenth Man is mentioned. This is the philosophy that, in a group of advisors, it is the responsibility of the “tenth man” to disagree with the conclusions of the other nine who are of one mind regarding a serious matter. The tenth man makes the case for the unlikely scenario the others don’t see happening. You can watch the movie’s explanation here.
While this is just a movie, the Israeli Defense Forces did indeed create such a safeguard after several failed attempts by the government to take threats seriously in the 1930s and later in the early 1970s. This “tenth-man” unit is actually called Ipcha Mistabra, meaning “on the contrary” in Aramaic or “the opposite is more reasonable.” Their job is to challenge the prevailing assumptions of the IDF’s Intelligence Directorate. In other words, be a devil’s advocate.
Most recently, this unit warned of likely terrorist attacks by Hamas just weeks before they happened in October 2023. Similar versions of this type of thinking have existed for some time now in cybersecurity, airports, governments, and private organizations and are often referred to as Red Teams.
It seems obvious in our country right now that no one is really challenging the group think of politicians from both parties who have spent this country into oblivion, especially during the last two presidencies. Our citizenry is divided in many ideological ways, but most also seem to assume the status quo of peace and prosperity for the majority will continue despite much evidence to the contrary. It doesn’t take a tenth man to see this, but it seems only 10% are paying attention.
From what I can tell, this country is not ready for its next unthinkable event(s), be it financial collapse, a deadlier plague, or the next global war (be it chemical, biological, nuclear, or even foreign boots on the ground here). These rare occurrences are sometimes referred to as black swan events.
There was a popular saying in Europe for centuries that goes all the way back to the second century AD: “A rare bird in the world, very similar to a black swan.” It was based on the belief that black swans didn’t exist. Then, in 1697, they were discovered by a Dutch explorer in western Australia. Now, this term means the existence of something that is thought not possible but actually is. A modern version of this theory by Nassim Taleb encompasses outlier events that have either good or bad consequences.
So, what in the world does this have to do with you and me? For Feed the Hunger, it is healthy to consider and practically prepare from both the standpoint of prevalent opinion and the so-called tenth man. Our Board of Directors and staff recently went through a brainstorming exercise. I asked them two questions:
- What if you knew the Lord was returning in the next decade? Make a list of six tangible ways Feed the Hunger should alter its ministry in light of this reality.
- What if you knew America would experience a historic and perhaps irreversible crash in the next decade? This could include war, the dollar collapsing, a more devastating plague, etc. Make a list of six tangible ways Feed the Hunger should alter its ministry in light of this reality.
Now, let’s assume Jesus doesn’t actually return or the country isn’t severely shaken in the next decade. Should these practical steps of preparation be different? I would answer that they shouldn’t.
The first part of 2 Timothy 4:2 states: “Preach the word; be prepared in season and out of season.” As Christians, we must be ready to tell others about Jesus during convenient and inconvenient times. One of the ways our ministry has chosen to be ready is to position ourselves for ongoing outreach, regardless of whether things are going well in our nation and world.
What about you? Have you asked these two questions of yourself? If not, perhaps it’s time to consider using tenth-man thinking about black swan events to come up with practical ways to prepare—while continuing to live a life of purpose.